Sure Iâll take the Huskies on the road as a double digit dog against a Pitt team thatâs one dimensional on offense and has struggled to score in the red zone, convert 3rd downs, and has scored more than 14 points just once in their last 4 games.
Uconnâs strength is stopping the run allowing 89 yards a game they have yet to allow a 100 yard rusher and they are allowing 2.91 yards per carry. Uconn is also best in the conference in allowing just 32.38% conversions on 3rd down. Pitt is right there at 35.34%, but they are converting just 35.6% on offense which leads me to believe this is going to be a defensive game decided by special teams and defense. Right now Uconn can stop the run a lot better than Pitt who is allowing 3.74 yards per carry in conference play and allowed over 200 yards to South Florida.
Letâs talk red zone as itâs an important aspect of the game and these two teams are pretty much even with Pitt being able to score more TDâs and CT being better on defense than the Panthers in the red zone. However Pitt has struggled of late getting just 28% of their RZ opportunities and turning them into TDâs. Uconn has allowed just 17 red zone trips and only 7 have been TDâs Thatâs 41% while Pitt is allowing 57%. Uconn seems to be a bit better in this area and itâs partially due to their strength in the front seven that should give Pitt a lot of issues. DE Ted Jennings, DT Reyes and the linebackers Moore, Johnson and Smallword will have their day with Pitt and their running game in my opinion. I donât see Pitt running their no huddle much as head coach Graham said they are scaling the playbook back and thatâs because.
Itâs not working and the offensive line is awful giving up 33 sacks already on the season. Thatâs led to an inability to throw the ball and when they are throwing the ball they are making mistakes as Pitt is -7 in turnover margin while Connecticut is +4 on the year. Uconnâs defense is able to force interceptions and they have forced a total of 16 turnovers on the year meanwhile Pitt has just 3 and theyâve thrown 10. Uconn is definitely less prone to make turnovers which should keep them in this defensive battle and they just played a good USF team at home that plays a similar style of offense and defense and they were able to come out with a 16-10 win. This game is on the road but Uconn seems to play well in these type of games and they are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 as a dog and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 vs. a losing team while they are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Their new head coach Paul Pasqualoni is 12-2 straight up vs. Pitt from his years with Syracuse.
